Reporting on a time series

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What this lesson covers

  • State the purpose.
  • Describe features using the numbers and context.
  • Comment on the forecast's limits.
Key idea

The report structure

  • Purpose: what is being forecast and why.
  • Features: trend, seasonal pattern and anything unusual, with numbers.
  • Forecast: the values and how you got them.
  • Trust: what could make it wrong.
Worked example

Model sentences

  • For Kōwhai Café.
PartSentence
TrendSales rose by about $2000 each quarter over the two years.
SeasonQ4 sits about $12 000 above trend and Q1 about $12 000 below.
TrustWith only two years of data, the forecast should be treated with caution.

Common mistakes

  • Listing features with no numbers.
    Quote values with units.
  • Claiming the forecast will happen.
    A forecast assumes the pattern continues.

Your turn

  • 1. Name one reason a forecast could fail.
Show answer

1. A change such as a new competitor or a closure could break the pattern

Summary

What to take away

  • Question, features, forecast, trust.
  • Numbers and context in every sentence.

More in AS 91580

Features of a time seriesNotesMoving averages and the trendNotesSeasonal effects and forecastingNotesReporting on a time seriesNotes

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